Why the Most Votes Alone Are Not Enough to Win Nigeria's Presidency

Winning Nigeria's presidential election takes two things. A candidate must lead the national vote and must also receive a meaningful share of the vote across much of the country. One without the other is not enough.

That second test is usually called the “25% rule”. It sounds technical, but the idea is simple: the winner should have support that reaches beyond one part of Nigeria. The 2023 result shows why the rule matters. It also shows why winning a state is not the same as building national spread.

Illustration: NGElections. No party or candidate is represented.

The rule in one minute

When more than two candidates contest, section 134 of the Constitution sets two tests. First, the candidate must have the highest number of votes nationwide. Second, the candidate must receive at least 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory.^[1]

Abuja caused a legal argument after the 2023 election. The Supreme Court held that the FCT is not a separate, extra hurdle: it is treated like one of the other constituent units when the spread requirement is worked out.^[2] The judgment matters because it rejected the claim that a candidate must always score 25% in Abuja in addition to meeting the wider test.

Reaching 25% is not the same as winning a state

The distinction is easy to miss. A candidate can finish second in a state and still add that state to the 25% count. More than one candidate can cross the line in the same place. In Bayelsa, Nasarawa and Taraba, three of the four leading candidates each received at least one-quarter of the valid vote.

That is why a simple map of state winners does not show the full route to the presidency. In 2023, the APC and PDP candidates each won 12 states. The Labour Party candidate won 11 states and the FCT. Yet their spread counts were 29, 21 and 16 respectively. The NNPP candidate won Kano and crossed 25% there alone.^[3]